But seeing as all day today while I was at the sports book, TONS of money was being put on the Dodgers and Yankees to win their series vs the Phillies and Angels (75% or more of the cash was for the Max)

Makes sense, Baseball cant have have an all LA series, that would cut in on the east coasters watching the games and hurting the television revenues, and also the games would be on to late when played in LA at Prime Time, unless they started all of the games really early in the afternoon. Also seems like the fix was in on the Twins losing to NY, but they really didnt need it.

Saw to much money being placed today while hanging out at the windows waiting for my line to move on the CFB game between Ark St and ULM, and to get a better price on the Avalance.

After thinking abou it, seems like the really smart money is on it. :grrr:

2009 Season 15-6 +10.55Units

Alabama -6 vs Mississippi
To big of a mismatch here, all in favor of Alabama. I cant really see how Mississippi will have any angle ot win, except for getting a huge mass of turnovers and scoring with them. I am looking forward to watching the Crimson Tide roll over Mississippi this week, and have already made this one of my bigger plays of the weekend. Alabama should control the line on the offense and defense, and Mississippi just wont be able to keep up. This one will be close for the first 1/2...

2009 Season Record 19-8 +16.8Units

N.E. Patriots -3.5 vs Denver Broncos
Patriots are a CONTENDER and have rebounded from their shakey starts in the first couple of weeks, and are looking like the Patriots we are used to seeing. While on the flip-side, the Broncos are PRETENDERS. The Broncos have given up only 26 points in 4 games, but look at who those 4 games were against. Browns, Raiders, Bengals and the Cowboys. Their offense is also suspect, as all of those games have been close, with the exception of the Raiders game. Now if this...

This week, as in every week I will lay down the meat and potatos on which teams are for real, and which teams are to hyped. I will also throw you the games to stay away from, because the linesmakers on occasion do put out a solid line. Going to do something different this week and start in the NFL just for a slight change of pace.

 

N.E. Patriots -3.5 vs Denver Broncos

Patriots are a CONTENDER and have rebounded from their shakey starts in the first couple of weeks, and are looking like the Patriots we are used to seeing. While on the flip-side, the Broncos are PRETENDERS. The Broncos have given up only 26 points in 4 games, but look at who those 4 games were against. Browns, Raiders, Bengals and the Cowboys. Their offense is also suspect, as all of those games have been close, with the exception of the Raiders game.  Now if this game was in week 1 to open the season, the Patriots would have been a -7.5 all the way up to a -9.5 favorite. The Patriots are a playoff team again this year, and they know how to win. The Broncos are a new fresh team and are about to be brought back to what kind of team they really are, This is one game that you need to jump on early to get the best line, but it shouldnt matter in this blowout.  Patriots 38  Broncos 17

 

Ind Colts -3.5 vs Tenn Titans

The Colts are a CONTENDER, as they are looking to go on a 5-0 start this year, and also beat a division rival on Prime Time TV. Manning and company are going to come out firing, and scoring, then scoring some more. The Colts are a team everyone is overlooking this year, there isnt much hype or talk, which is great for us on the betting side.  The Titans are a PRETENDER this year. They are going to try and not start the season in an 0-5 position, but in my opinion, they have mentally already given up this year, and it shows with how they played last week vs the Jaguars. Last year the Titans did win a Monday Night Game, but when it really mattered in the playoffs, Manning and company shoed them how to get it done. Ill easily lay -3.5 on Manning vs a weak pass defense that let the Jaguars (yes the Jaguars) run up the score on the Titans. Easy money here, Manning in the spotlight on a televised game, with great recievers all around him. Expect another shutout here, maybe the Titans get a field goal.  Colts 31  Titans 3

 

Pitt Steelers -10 vs Detriot Lions

The Steelers are a CONTENDER, and they proved it last Sunday night vs the Chargers. They came out firing, found their rythm, and even found a secret weapon in Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers will still be without Troy Palamalu this week, but do they really need them playing against the Lions? Now the Lions are a PRETENDER, they were last year, and the year before... Its getting old. They havent done anything to change their ways, except finally getting a win this year againts the Washington Redskins. The Lions dont have a good pass rush, and they dont have any real run stoppers. This game is going to be a fantasy football players dream if you have any starters on the Steelers offense. They get it done, and Mendenhall has another 150+yd day, Roethlisberger also should close in on 300yds and 2-3 TD's.   Steelers 41  Lions 13

 

NY Jets -1.5 vs Miami Dolphins (MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL)

The Jets are a CONTENDER this year, and they have proven it in my eyes. They were off to a great 3-0 start, and then they met up with the Saints in week 4. Sanchez is a rookie, and it was due to catch up to him against a team he was playing against on the road. Now on the other side of the ball, the Dolphins are a PRETENDER. Pennington is out, and they are starting Chad Henne ... Say that again with me... Henne. The Dolphins are going to try and control the ball and the clock the entire game, which they have been successful at doing for the most part of the year. They really havent faced a defense that will be able to force many "3 and outs" on them. This week the Jets defense shows up pumped, and ready to get over the loss they had last week in New Orleans. Look for the Dolphins to not have much ball control and amass many 1st downs. Jets roll easy.  NY Jets 27  Miami Dolphins 13

 

Now lets look ahead to this weeks NCAA games. There have been some upsets and some close calls. They leaders are starting to seperate themselves from the rest of the pack, and in some cases the pack is going to overcome the leaders in the next couple of weeks. So lets look ahead to what we have going on this weekend in college. And yet again, I have an upset brewing.

Alabama -6 vs Mississippi

To big of a mismatch here, all in favor of Alabama. I cant really see how Mississippi will have any angle ot win, except for getting a huge mass of turnovers and scoring with them. I am looking forward to watching the Crimson Tide roll over Mississippi this week, and have already made this one of my bigger plays of the weekend. Alabama should control the line on the offense and defense, and Mississippi just wont be able to keep up.  This one will be close for the first 1/2 of the game, then look for Alabama to roll.  Alabama 37  Mississippi 20

 

Michigan vs Iowa -8

Michigan is in a great spot to rebound from last weeks loss, as they travel to Iowa. This line is inflated due to Iowas playing the past few weeks, and the upset over Penn St (which I predicted) and this year they are in for the upset.  Iowa's offense wont be able to do much against the defense of Michigan this week, and this game is going to be a low scoring affair, which doesnt go with a -8 line. Look for the upset.  Michigan 20  Iowa 16

 

Good luck this week guys, lets hit those books hard again this week.

PayingTheJuice

This Weeks "David vs Goliath" in the NFL and NCAA Football

September 29th 2009
This Weeks "David vs Goliath" in the NFL and NCAA Football:

There are some huge favorites on the board this week in both college and the pros. Now the question is, which ones are going to cover and which ones dont stand a chance. Handicappers have put out a couple of over-inflated lines in which they know the public is going to pound away at without batting an eye, our jobs is to beat these numbers they put out. There are a couple of surprising lines...

September 29th 2009

This Weeks "David vs Goliath" in the NFL and NCAA Football:

There are some huge favorites on the board this week in both college and the pros. Now the question is, which ones are going to cover and which ones dont stand a chance. Handicappers have put out a couple of over-inflated lines in which they know the public is going to pound away at without batting an eye, our jobs is to beat these numbers they put out. There are a couple of surprising lines out there, but on the flip side there are a couple of very very soft lines. As always, there are some solid lines to stay away from, as they offer no real value in betting either side. So lets jump into some of these lines, starting with College Football.

Soft under-inflated line = Miami-Ohio Redhawks vs Cincinatti Bearcats -28 *2 Units* 

This is a WAY under-inflated line. The bookmakers are trying to tell us that the Redhawks are going to cover a 28 point spread? Lets look at why this line isnt enough for Miami-Ohio. First off, the Redhawks have yet to score more then 26 points in any game yet this year, they have scored a total of 45 total in all 4 games so far combined, thats only 10.125 ppg. They are 0-4 SU and ATS so far this season, and have been shut out by Kentucky 42-0 and Boise St 48-0. Now Cincinatti on the other hand are coming off of a close game against Fresno St. The game was sloppy and shouldnt have been as close as the score would have you believe, Cincinatti has always rebounded in a good way from a close game that should have been a blowout. This line is a gift, thanks to the close game last week in the 28-20 win vs Fresno. This line should be closer to the -32 mark. Cincinatti wins handily 45-10

Soft under-inflated line = Utah St vs BYU -24 *2 Units*

Utah St has not won at BYU since 1993. This BYU in my eyes is slightly better then last years team, despite the record. BYU will need to bounce back huge from their loss early in the season. Utah St is just going to be a speedbump on BYU's quest to get into the top 10 ASAP. This game wont be as close as the -24 line the cappers put out. Utah St 17   BYU 52

Over-Inflated line = New Mexico *2 Units* vs Texas Tech -35

Texas Tech played a very physical and no huddle, fast paced offense vs Houston last week. By the end of that game, the Red Raiders defense could barely walk off of the field. Now they face the same no huddle offense in New Mexico, mind you NM is no where near as good as Houston. Texas Tech would love for this week to be their bye week, and could use the rest. But back to back games vs fast paced offenses NEVER works out for a favorite with such a huge number. Texas Techs defense will still be feeling the effects of their last game, and will keep their offense on the field as much as possible. Look for Tech to run more then usual, and burn the clock. The UNDER is also a very very great play in this scenerio. New Mexico 16 Texas Tech 38

Solid stay away lines =

Virginia vs North Carolina -14

NorthWestern vs Purdue -7

 

Now there are quite a few large lines this week in the NFL. This is the first turn in the NFL season that seperates the Contenders from the Pretenders. Last week there were a couple of upsets that we didnt see, and there was 1 we all could see coming (The Lions winning SU). There is another upset brewing in the NFL for week 4, and also a solid line or 2.

Under-inflated line = Cincinatti Bengals -5.5 vs Cleveland Browns *5 Units*

This years Browns team is last years Lions team. They have a 3rd string back-up starting, and two 2nd strings sitting on the bench. They have no offensive weapons, and their defense is horrid. There is nothing to like about this yeam, and they aew only getting +5.5 points? On the flip side, the Bengals are on a roll, and objects in motion stay in motion. This team should be 3-0 this year, and they are coming off a huge win vs the defending Super Bowl Champs. This is a line that should have opened closer to -9 or -10, but you have to look at the linesmakers reasoning ... This is the Bengals, when was the last time the Bengals have been a -10 point favorite? This line is soft until the Bengals can continue to prove they are for real. Give up the -6, as they score a touchdown in their first series. This game is the easiest game of the week to make your money on. Im playing it HUGE and making it the biggest play all weekend. Cincinatti Bengals 31 Cleveland Browns 13

 

Under-inflated line = New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints -6.5 *2 Units*

Who Dem Saints? Those are the Saints that are going to be sending the Jets home on Sunday evening with a loss. Of course, the Jets D is for real, but the Saints offense is also. The Jets have a medicore Offense and a starting rookie QB, and the Saints defense is practically non-existant. But you have to remember, the Saints are at home, and Brees can pick apart any defense on any day. The Jets are on the road, and their defense comes back down to earth this week, as Brees starts to pick it apart early, and the Jets D starts to question itself. It could get out of hand if the Jets offense isnt able to keep up with the Saints. Im predicting it wont, cause something has to give between these 2 teams, and you are really betting on 2 things here. Drew Brees or the Jets Defense. Im going with Drew Brees. NY Jets 24 New Orleans Saints 41

Over-inflated line = Washington Redskins -7 vs Tampa Bay Buccs *2 Units*

Like last week when I said the Redskins wont win in Detriot, Im close to saying that they wont win in TB either. Im not going to predict a win for TB here. But these 2 teams are HORRIBLE. I do think the Bucs have a better chance for a SU Win here as they are at home, even though they are in the midst of a QB contraversy. I just dont see laying -7 on the Redskins who cant even score a touchdown in the past 3 games, let alone on the road. Look for sloppy play, and for this game to have more scoring on defense then on offense. Washington Redskins 13 Tampa Bay Bucs 16

Solid stay away lines =

SD Chargers vs Pitt Steelers -6.5 (Which team actually shows up?)

Oakland Raiders vs Houston Texans -9.5

 

Lets cash in again this week like we did last week. Am here to give you the perspective I have on the games for this week, so we can all hurt the books wallet for a 4th straight week. Lets cash guys!

PayingTheJuice

 

 

 

Now the NFL week 3 has mostly a slate full of games we wouldnt be insterested in watching, unless we had some hard earned money on it. There are a couple of huge upsets waiting to happen, and they happen in week 3 to make this week a very interesting one indeed.

Washington Redskins -7 vs Detriot Lions *2units ML +230 and *2Units +7

You have to be a madman to give up 7 points as the leagues worst offense who has only scored 2 offensive touchdowns so far this season, and having a defense that has recoded 2 sacks...

Thats right, get ready for a week of upsets and blowouts in the NFL and NCAA this weekend.  We are going to start off in the NCAA for this Saturday.

Iowa vs Penn St -10 O/U 41

Coach Ferentz is 3-1 all time vs Penn St. When you couple this in that Penn state has NOT covered the spread yet this year (0-3 ATS) Im looking for this game to be close, and much to close for comfort for Penn St. They are clearly one of the elite teams in the Big 10, but they havent proven themselves yet at the betting window.  Couple this in with the fact that IOWA is 7-1 the last 8 games ATS and the Underdog is sporting a great 7-2 ATS between these 2 teams.  Look for this one to go down to the final drive, take this underdog and cash out at the window. Iowa 31  Penn St 27

Illinois vs Ohio St -14 O/U 49

Illinois is going to hang in there like they have done the past few seasons, keeping it close and giving them a chance to win the game outright. Ohio St only beat them by 10 last year, and in the previous year before that, Illinois won the game straight up. Illinois has had Ohio St's number the past few season. While Illinois has had 2 weeks to prepare for this matchup with a week off last week, Ohio St is coming off a 38-0 win against Toledo, yet the first 2 games they lost straight up to USC, and barely squeeked by a sub-par Navy team 31-27. While there are a few rumors going around that the flu is starting to hit the team, the onnly known case was the punter, who will suit up for this weeks game.  Another dog that should easily cash at the window by keeping it close.  Illinois 24  Ohio St 33

Now I am going to give a couple blowouts for this weekends NCAA, that should easily be over by halftime, to take the pressure off the close game underdogs I listed above.

Boise St -17 vs Bowling Green O/U 50.5

Boise St. is in the drivers seat to move within the top 5 in the polls this week. They know it, thier coaches know it, and their fans know it. They have been in big games lately and know how to win under pressure. They wont recieve any pressure from Bowling Green, as they are horrid on defense, especially the run defense. Boise St will stick to running this game and dont feel sick to your stomach if they get over 250yds on the ground. This game is over by halftime. Boise St 45  Bowling Green 10

California -7 vs Oregon O/U 56

Easy game. All I have to say is 2 words to WHY this covers by halftime. Jahvid Best. Also Oregon is out of gas after the thrashing of BYU, and havent looked that ahead to this game. Covers by halftime and then some.  Cal 38  Oregon 20

 

Now the NFL week 3 has mostly a slate full of games we wouldnt be insterested in watching, unless we had some hard earned money on it. There are a couple of huge upsets waiting to happen, and they happen in week 3 to make this week a very interesting one indeed.

Washington Redskins -7 vs Detriot Lions

You have to be a madman to give up 7 points as the leagues worst offense who has only scored 2 offensive touchdowns so far this season, and having a defense that has recoded 2 sacks and 1 interception so far this season? Can the Lions be that bad? Nope, I believe they have a chance to win this game outright, and they should be a small home favorite of -2 to -3. I just dont understand how the Redskins on the road, with their horrid stats, are a touchdown favorite, it must be the fact they are playing the winless lions. Can the Redskins score a TD against a team like the Rams, obviously they couldnt, as they won 9-7 AT HOME. And now they are giving a touchdown to a team who might be slightly better then the Rams, and they are on the road?  Im eating up these +7 points, and cashing them in at the window, also laying some money on the Money Line +230!   Detriot 17  Redskins 9

Denver Broncos -2 vs Oakland Raiders

Same scenerio as the Lions above.  Your giving me points on the better team and at home? Yet you want me to give up points to a undeserving team on the road? The Broncos arent what their record makes them out to be. They got lucky in week 1 with a tipped pass to win the game in the final seconds. Then in week 2 at home, they thrash a team called the Cleveland Browns . . . Now they head back on the road, and take their show to Oakland, remember the last time they played in Oakland? They lost 31-10, and this year they dont have Cutler. Im taking these +2 to the window as well, as Oakland is one of the toughest places to play as the visiting team. Oakland 27 Denver 17

Now for the blowouts, games that you wont have to sweat over for an easy win to pad your pocketbook.

Baltimore Ravens -13 vs Cleveland Browns

Browns got hammered last week when the Broncos came to town ... Now we have a far superior team, and possibly this years Super Bowl champions coming in.  Flacco is the real deal, and how is the Browns offense going to do with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis running around, absolutely NOTHING. Done by halftime, and the Browns give it up in the 3rd quarter. Jamaal Lewis is their top Rusher with only 95yds rushing for the season. The Ravens come in smelling blood, and look for some huge #'s on both the offense and defense from the Ravens.  Ravens 31  Browns 3

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans -3.5

Texans return home this week after a shootout win against the Titans. They are starting to feel it, and the momentum carries over into this game at home. The only thing the Jaguars have going for them in Jones-Drew, and the Jaguars will get a score or 2 from them. But keep in mind all the 3 and outs the Jaguars will have this weekend, and it wont even be close to enough. Texans 27  Jaguars 13

 

Cash them in at the window, thats what we all are here for.  good luck guys, lets all have a profitable weekend.

PayingTheJuice

 

As we head into the second week of the NFL, there are still quite a few quesitons left unanswered. Let me give you my insight on some of these games and how you can take advantage of them, and cash in at your favorite sportsbook.

NFL Sunday 9/20

New England Patriots -3.5 vs New York Jets

Questions everyone was asking at the begining of the season was "Will Tom Brady come back from his injury and regain his MVP status?" He answered that in the 4th quarter against a pesky Bills team. Leading them to a score in both of their final drives to win 25-24. Brady looked shakey in his start, but settled down in the fourth quarter when it mattered. He got comfortable in the pocket, and started to get back into his rythm. The Brady in the 4th quarter was the Tom Brady of previous years, the Brady that started the game was someone who was questioning himself, and making bad decisions and holding onto the ball for to long.

Now the Jets are fired up for the Patriots to come into town. They believe they are a better team then the Bills, and that they will be able to close it ou, something that the Bills were unable to do. Rex Ryan has the Jets fired up for this matchup, as he tries to make them play above their ability, and step up against the Patriots. Of course the Jets put up great numbers in week 1, but you have to remember who that was against - the Houston Texans. The Texans have a sub-par defense, and a shaky offense. The Jets made be fired up for this one, but Belichick has other ideas/ Look for the Patriots to come back to what the Patriots do. Brady will be comfortable, and Sanchez will be exploited by a Super Bowl caliber team. This one may be close in the first quarter, but it will get ugly heading into and after halftime. Patriots -3.5  Final Score Patriots 34  Jets 17

NCAAF 9/19

BYU -7.5 vs Florida State

The question everyone has been wanting to know is if BYU should have been in the Championship Game last yea? Well BYU is going to answer this question for everyone this year. They are on a mission to prove to everyone why they should have went last year, and why they WILL BE there this year. They have been relentless this year on both the offense and defense. Every game is another exclaimaiton point to their statement. While on the flip side, Florida State is playing sloppy, their offensve line is not what everyone expected it to be, and facing a top team like BYU will expose why Florida WILL NOT be ranked in the top 25 this year.

BYU will score and score often, both on offense and defense. BYU is scording 34 points a game while only giving up 8 per game on defense. Florida is scoring 26.5 against lackluster defenses, while also giving up 23.5. BYU hsould at least be favored by double digits in this one, as they punch Florida State in the mouth from the first quarter, and never let up. Easy game here. BYU -7.5  Final Score  BYU 45 Florida State 17

Other easy winners to take to the window.

NFL

Tennesse -7.5  Heartbreaking loss to open the season, when they should have won the game outright. They overmatch the Houston Texans, and cover this spread with ease. I believe the Texans might keep it close till halftime, so stay away from a 1st half wager on either team.

Cleveland Browns +3  The Broncos are a favorite here? Even at home? The Broncos are coming off a stunning LUCKY win last week. But the Browns are the better team here, and your giving me 3 points when the Browns I consider to be a -1 point favorite? Take the points and run!

Indianapolis Colts -3  Monday Night Football, Manning is only giving up 3 points in a MNF game and I suggest you back him up and take the Colts. Miami surprised everyone with the Wildcat Offense last year... but guess what, no one is going to be surprised this year. Miami gets blown out on MNF while Peyton exposes how bad their defense is. I'd take the Colts even at -7.

Hope everyone cashes in, and hope my insight helps you out. We are all here to beat the books, lets get em together.

This game features the defending Super Bowl Champs opening up their season at home against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans in 2008 had their best season, going 13-3, but quickly losing in their first game in the playoffs. The Titans record in 2008 is quite decieving in the eyes of many bettors, as most of their wins came against teams who didnt make the playoffs in 2008. On the flip side, the Steelers  cruised through the playoffs and played an excitng Super Bowl, with what many deemed to have the toughest schedule in the 2008 season. The line opened up at -5 and has since been bumped up to -6 in favor of the Steelers, as we get closer to this game opening up the NFL Season. The total is set at 35.

The Titans return most of their defense, but the most important part of their defense is missing.  Defensive Tackle Albert Haynesworth was lost to free agency this year, and he was a key reason of the Titans improbable 13-3 record. The Titans do return their 1-2 combo of running backs "Thunder & Lightening", but as Mike Tomlin of the Steelers said earlier this week, he will be having Parker and Mendenhall split carries as well this season. Everyone knows about the quick and agile back Willie Parker is, but lets look at Mendenhall as I predict he will be a HUGE KEY to the Steelers success this year. 

Mendenhall recorded 1,300 yards and 21 touchdowns as a sophomore. As a junior, he rushed for 1,832 yards and 19 touchdowns, while averaging 11.6 yards per carry. In his last year, he averaged 9.1 yards per carry, rushing for 1,453 yards on 160 attempts and 14 touchdowns. Mendenhall ran an unofficial 4.36 in the 40yd dash. His run was officially timed at 4.45, which was sixth among all running backs at the NFL Scouting Combine. He saw limited action in 2008, as he had suffered an injury when he got his first start. Mendenhall has the speed of Parker, and the power of Steeler favorite Jerome Bettis. He will be exciting to watch. And with the Titans losing Haynesworth, look for both Parker and Mendenhall to find seams, and allow the Steelers to get an early lead, and control the game with the run.

This game also features a "Revenge Factor". The Steelers traveled to Tennessee in the 2008 season, where the Titans won. But taking it to far were the Titans, who during the game stomped on "Terrible Towels" on the sidelines. The Steelers and the Steelers fans I am sure have not forgotten this, and the home field advantage plays huge into the favor of the Steelers.  Also the Steelers last 3 season openers, they have won the games easily, cruising to wins by 10 points or more.

The advantages all favor the Steelers on both sides of the ball. If the Steelers get an early lead in the 1st quarter, look for them to keep the ball on the ground, and pass only when needed, as they will control the clock. Taking the Steelers -6 at home, with the better offense/defense and revenge factor is a no-brainer. Hopefully you can grab this line before it raises yet again.